®Monomakhos

Making Sense of Syria

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Not possible.  Way too many moving parts (as it were).

Sorry to break it to you all but that country is not going to be united any time soon.  Or peaceful.  Humpty Dumpty fell off the wall and as they say “all the king’s men and all the king’s horses couldn’t put him back together again”.

It wasn’t a mistake, mind you.  This is all by design.  It’s what the American Deep State, Turkey, and (especially) Israel wanted.

Given our hyper-interventionist, post WWII era foreign policy, it was inevitable.  (George Washington has been spinning in his grave ever since 1917 but that’s a story for another day.)

For one thing, the Assad regime was brutally corrupt.  That being said, most Arab regimes are.  Like many ethnicities in that part of the world, the Arabs are notoriously tribal and thus, everything is viewed the the prism of tribalism.  Let us be blunt:  statecraft is not a Middle Eastern strong suit.

The problem with Assad however was his inability to listen to his Russian, Iranian and Chinese advisors who tried to tell him to take the corruption down a couple of notches.  He wouldn’t do it and when it became clear that the Syrian Army wouldn’t fight for its nation (most likely because they’d been bribed to stand down), the Russians and Iranians did the smart thing and bailed on him.

That’s all water under the bridge.  Instead of looking upon the past, let’s assess what’s what.

The Turks won, hugely.  Now their army is in Syria and they ain’t going anywhere.  Their borders will extend to Iraq in no time at all.  And we here in America won’t be able to do anything about it.

Why?  Because it’s all about leverage and Erdogan has it –in spades.  To make sure he gets even more leverage, he’s making side deals with the Russians; word on the street is that he wants them to stay at their bases in Latakya and Tartus.  If the Russians agree to this, then together they will serve as a check on the US, the Israelis, but most especially on the Kurds.

This last point deserves a little more scrutiny.  After all, aren’t we the guarantors of the Kurds?  Not if Erdogan stares us down.  Look at it this way:  he controls the Bosporus Straights and the Dardanelles; he can open and shut all shipping through that chokepoint.  It’s not just the Russians who need access from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean but Uncle Sam as well.  Did you know that we are building the world’s largest naval base in Romania right now?  See what I mean by leverage?

In other words, the Kurds, are in a tenuous position, one which could go either way for them; they could get an independent homeland (Lord knows, they deserve it), or they could continue to remain stateless.  It’s really up to the Turks; for them, an independent Kurdistan is an existential threat.  So, I’m not expecting Erdogan to play along, no matter what the Americans or the Israelis want.  As the late Henry Kissinger said:  “It is dangerous to be America’s enemy, it is fatal to be America’s friend.”

For those who may not be aware, the Israelis have long been supplying the Kurds with ammunition and quasi-political support.

As for the Israelis, we could say that because of the ensuing chaos, they have bought themselves significant amounts of time.  More to the point, they have cut off the major land corridor that allowed Iran to supply Hezbollah in Lebanon.  Their northern flank is now safe.  That doesn’t mean that they’re completely out of the woods.  Although Mohammed al-Jolani, the present “leader” of Syria is openly expressing non-belligerence to the Jewish state, jihadist groups have a way of going off the rails when it comes to “the Zionist entity”.

As for the Palestinians, their cause is now finished.  As has been said for some time now “If Syria falls, Palestine falls”.  And Syria has fallen, never to rise again.  I’m not too sure about Lebanon at this point.

I expect Jordan to be the last domino to fall.  Once the neocons work their magic there, they can say that “Jordan is Palestine” and declare the Palestinian Question solved for all time.  At this point, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Dome of the Rock and the al-Aqsa Mosque were demolished and the Third Temple rebuilt.  Let us be frank:  the Muslim ummah has proven to be a paper tiger.

That said, If I were the Israelis, I’d keep my eye on Ankara as Turkey’s presence is only going to grow.  At two million men, it’s army is at least five times the size of Israel’s.  I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Israeli’s started making side-deals with Moscow, especially if Russia and Turkey don’t come to an agreement on their bases.  Anything’s possible.  As for the resulting statelets that arise in whatever remains of Syria, the Israelis should find them easier to control, so I don’t expect them to serve as breeding grounds for terrorist groups a la Hamas or Hezbollah for the time being.

So, let’s recap.  Who are the winners and who are the losers and who pulled a draw?

Here are the winners in descending order:

  1.  Turkey,
  2.  Israel,
  3.  the American Deep State.

Here are the losers (in descending order):

  1.  Iran,
  2.  the Kurds,
  3.  the American/European peoples,
  4.  Syria and the various religious minorities,
  5.  the Palestinians —always the Palestinians.  As it’s long been said, “the Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity”.

As for the Russians, initially, I thought that they had lost big-time,  given the fact that it looked like the Turks had betrayed them.  In retrospect, its more likely that both countries had worked out a deal in Astana and decided that all things being equal, it would be better for Turkey to be the hegemon in the Middle East.  After all, the Russians got their hands full in the Ukraine; the SMO is an existential threat for them, Syria wasn’t.

Thanks to the machinations of the Deep State, the neoconservatives got what they wanted.  That doesn’t mean that things will work out well for them.  Word on the street is that HTS (the Turkish-aligned terrorist group that conquered Damascus) is sending out feelers to join BRICS.  That shouldn’t surprise us if we consider that the Turks funded and trained them.  Lest we forget, Turkey wants to be a full member of BRICS.

See what I mean by too many moving parts?  Anyway, it’s a “fluid situation”.

 

 

 

 

Comments

  1. This commentator on Larry’s site makes excellent sense of the situation. Notice how he brings out that Turkey has Uncle Sam by the balls in Incirlik (and the American nukes stationed there):

    “I doubt that Putin, Erdogan or even Assad were ‘caught by surprise’ by the HTS coup de main. They may have orchestrated the bizarre collapse of SAA resistance, which certainly minimized fighting and casualties all around. HTS cutting throats, SAA popping up to fight- or hunkering down in Latakia under the Russian umbrella- I don’t think any of the big three players failed to anticipate any of this. While the US, with help from UK and Israel, certainly thought they were the prime mover, the situation overall looks like more Putin judo.

    “First, Syria could not protect itself from Israel. Neither could Russia, without becoming in a very hot conflict they did not have the logistical path to support. Turkiye can protect itself in Syria, so the more of Syria they occupy, the less of it gets bombed.

    “Second, HTS is doing what everyone predicted they would do- cutting throats. The US thinks they bought HTS, but they only bought a handful in the leadership. So, in the not too distant future, Erdogan is going to get rid of HTS- they are providing him with the pretext to do it, the remnants of SAA will cooperate (who thinks Putin is ignoring them?), and Erdogan will be able to put together a Syrian government that is basically the old Syrian government less Assad, but is also an extension of Turkiye. Once he gets the government he wants in there, the US and Israel will have to pull back. Israel can’t fight Turkiye, especially when the Turks can roll right up to the Golan on the ground through friendly territory. US can’t fight Turkiye because A) they’d lose Incirlik, and possibly a big stack of nuclear bombs; B) The US has a crappy logistical situation in the ME if Turkiye is hostile, so the US loses any war they start with Erdogan; C) Fighting the Turks would just push them all the way into the BRICS camp. If the US doesn’t defend the Kurds and leaves Syria, then it will be able to stay elsewhere in the ME for awhile. If it fights Turkiye, the US will lose and have to leave sooner, and Israel will go down at the same time.

    “If the US does not oppose Turkiye, Erdogan will continue to play his ‘balancing’ game between the west and BRICS, but he knows he must eventually wind up on the BRICS side. Combat between Turkiye and the US will put him there faster.

    “SO FAR, the situation on the ground is probably better for ordinary Syrians than if it had gone down in a more violent way. Yes, Syrians are suffering, some are being brutally murdered, but the casualties are pretty minor compared with a war of any duration.

    “I can’t predict if al Julani is going to make it to the next round, but a bunch of his boys are going to be put down in the not-too-distant future, mostly by Erdogan. He’s getting his ducks in a row in preparation.”

    Does anybody want to place a bet on whether Turkey holds on to our nukes if we don’t let them have their way with the Kurds? It’s brilliant: Turkey becomes a nuclear power overnight without having to do any of the R & D. (I bet the Ukrainians are kicking themselves because they gave up the Soviet nukes that were stationed on their land twenty-five years ago.)

    It’s freaking brilliant if you ask me.

    • I was at Incirlik on Operation Deep Furrow some fifty-plus years ago.
      It was a joint Turkish/American base then. Given Turkish pride,
      I don’t think that will have changed in the meantime.
      If the Turks want the nukes, they can take them.

    • The situation with the B61 nukes at Incirlik was a hot topic back in 2019-2020 or so, but to put it simply, they aren’t something you can just walk in and take and use, and attempting to seize them would be an effective declaration of war. This got into some of the details and is a decent writeup:

      https://www.twz.com/4873/leaving-nuclear-weapons-in-turkey-is-just-poor-strategy

      Ukraine never had the control authority over the Soviet warheads stationed in Ukraine. They couldn’t have used them, and the US wanted the weapons grade material back in Russia (the US taxpayer footed a big part of the bill for securing the former Soviet nuclear arsenal, which was money well spent if you ask me).

  2. Making sense of Trump:

    ‘ “President-elect Trump said Sunday evening on social media that the U.S. owning Greenland “is an absolute necessity,” in a statement announcing Ken Howery as his nominee to serve as ambassador to Denmark. …
    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5053319-trump-greenland-purchase/

    “For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity,” Trump said in the Truth Social post. … ‘
    https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113698764270730405

    ‘National Security and Freedom throughout the World … ‘

    Whose National Security?
    Whose Freedom?
    Denmark’s?
    Greenland’s?

    • Well, I’m opposed to America’s expansion anywhere, period. However, the idea is that the US is pulling back from Europe and will strike a deal with the Chinese so that all it really needs to do is guard its little neighborhood – the Americas – and possibly the Anglosphere and the Zionist entity. Control of sea lanes is what he’s interested in, much like the Chinese in the South China Sea. This is the method behind the whole Panama thing too.

      What America should be doing is closing military bases, nationalizing the MIC and revamping the military for near peer warfare. Putin, Xi and the Iranians are relatively moderate at this point. But leadership changes and America is largely defenseless as is.

      At least that would be in America’s interest. I’ve given up on America so I couldn’t really care less. Trump/MAGA was simply the lesser – far lesser – of two evils.

  3. Excellent analysis George. One point: Erdogan can not close the Dardanelles at will. There are treaties that forbid that from taking place. Turkey has never closed the straights, since the Treaty was signed back in 1922

    • You’re technically correct about the legal inability of Turkey being able to open or close the Dardanelles. From what I understand, they can refuse certain ships from pass-thru.

      Then there’s always “the first time” scenario.

  5. George: “The problem with Assad however was his inability to listen
    to his Russian, Iranian and Chinese advisors who tried to tell him
    to take the corruption down a couple of notches. He *wouldn’t* do it…”

    Perhaps he *couldn’t* do it, not without destroying the regime.
    Perhaps the sanctions (plus the theft of the wheat and the oil)
    so destroyed the financial base on which the economy rested
    that he did not have the resources to eliminate the corruption…

  6. It’s too early to say how this is going to pan out. Latest word is that the Russians may decide to keep their bases in Syria. The Turks want them to stay but Moscow has been reluctant.

    Turkey, of course, is clearly a winner. As a practical matter, they stand in a position to annex Syria down to Damascus and control whomever rules it.

    With Israel, it is a mixed bag. Hezbollah is still there. Hamas is still there. They have succeeded in cutting off one major supply route for Hezbollah, but they will find others. But, at the same time, they have taken people’s minds off their situation in Gaza and Lebanon, which was quite negative.

    Yet, I don’t believe they bargained for ISIS on their doorstep either. They wanted Assad overthrown, of course. But they just assumed like everyone else that HTS would take Aleppo and start a second front against Russia, not take Damascus and establish a terrorist state on Israel’s border. That’s why Israel has taken a buffer zone in southern Syria. Not as part of the plan but rather in reaction to Erdogan’s modification of the plan.

    Iran has suffered a tactical defeat. But I believe that is overblown as well. The Resistance lives on as is demonstrated by the Houthis.

    I’m not sure Russia lost much of anything valuable. The bases may stay, but even if they don’t, they’re not that important. Russia has already begun moving equipment to eastern Libya – for that was the real use of the bases, as a transit point to Africa. They no longer have a bill to pay for Syria with Assad’s name on it. He’s in Moscow. And, most importantly of all, they avoided a trap to draw them into another Afghanistan, courtesy of the CIA/Mossad.

    Now Erdogan is stuck with Syria, as are the US and Israel. HTS can’t govern it. They were little more than a front for Syrian special forces and intelligence.

    There are two lines, approximately in the shape of a cross, across Syria now. One is from Turkey to eastern Syria. That is axis along which the Turkish army are and will fight the American backed Kurds.

    The second is north to south. That is the axis along which whatever Islamists end up controlling Syria for Turkey will be fighting the Israelis, sooner rather than later. The only reason HTS is not doing so now is because it is too weak to fight anyone. It rode into Damascus unopposed. Even the Russians quit hitting them and their base in Idlib with air attacks when it became clear that Assad and his generals were folding.

    Now, no one is in charge, really. Though Turkey now, as a practical matter, claims sovereignty.

    The thing that is little discussed is that both Turkey and Syria had already applied to join BRICS. Much depends upon whose side Erdogan eventually settles. But if that were much of a mystery to the Russians, I doubt they would have retreated. Nor would Erdogan be asking them to keep their bases in Syria.

  7. An excellent summation from Taki Theodoracopoulos:

    “Since I began my journalistic career in the Middle East, mainly reporting from Jordan and Israel, I have fervently believed that one of the 20th century’s greatest tragedies, which continues well into the 21st century, is that of the Palestinian people. Unfortunately, I cannot put all the blame on Israeli hard-liners. In the late ’90s Prime Minister and General Rabin had offered Palestinian leader Arafat—this you won’t believe, but it is 100 percent true—a Palestinian state with a capital in East Jerusalem, 96 percent of the West Bank, and 4 percent of Israel, to make up for the 4 percent that the settlers had occupied beyond the borders in the ’67 war. And guess what? Arafat turned it down, confirming what ex–Israeli foreign minister Abba Eban had said long ago, that the Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.”

    You can read his article in its entirety here: https://www.takimag.com/article/all-conquering-israel/

      • As I understand it, the parts that were going to be under Israeli and/or Israeli/Palestinian control would eventually have been completely given over to Palestinian control after several years.

        Even so, the Oslo Accords, had they been accepted by Arafat, would have been immensely better for the Palestinians than what obtains now.

  8. On a religious note re Syria:

    https://orthodoxtimes.com/greek-pm-we-need-to-protect-religious-communities-falling-under-jurisdiction-of-patriarchate-of-antioch/

    Call me extremely skeptical when it comes to Mitsotakis and anything he has to do with Orthodoxy, but (and this is a very big but), is this a power grab on behalf of Greece and the EP who it’s in partnership with to make a power grab on the Patriarchate of Antioch?

    He’s shown no such care for the Church of Greece…why the Church of Antioch?

    It should also be noted that the Patriarchate of Antioch in both Syria and Lebanon is overwhelmingly Arab in both the laity and hierarchy.

    Could this be a way to bring the Antiochians back into the Greek sphere of influence and rather than the Church of Russia?

    I could easily see the EP claiming jurisdiction over the Turkish occupied parts of Syria.

    Along with that, if Antioch is unable to govern its Diaspora, I could equally as easily see the EP trying to bring the Antiochians back into Archdiocese, etc under its “wing”

    This is just spitballing but I don’t At all trust Mitsotakis or the EP

    • Petro, this is an excellent point you bring up. I actually don’t think that he’s carrying water for the EP. Instead, he may be doing two things:

      1. The Greek govt wants to get rid of Elpi. Lest we forget, Elpi was in Intel when he served in the Turkish Army. He may be valuable to the Turks. (So did Bart btw but his age precludes any usefulness to the Turks.)
      2. He’s signaling to Erdogan that he can’t get too big for his britches.

      Let me explain: One thing that was left out (but was implied) of my essay is that Erdogan fancies the renewal of the Ottoman Empire. Although he hasn’t made any explicit statements regarding the Balkans, I wouldn’t rule it out of his mind.