®Monomakhos

Damascus Has Fallen

by 33 Comments

Ordinarily, Gail and I try not to post any stories on Sundays, especially before Church.  Today is an exception.

As you may know by now, Islamic rebels have overrun Damascus and forced President Bashir al-Assad to flee.  As this post is being written in real time, we still can’t be sure about the situation on the ground nor about the foreseeable future.  Politics is a a messy business, war, even more so.  [Editor’s note:  according to one of my sources, Mohammed al-Jolani, a former commander of Al-Qaeda, has been proclaimed the new leader of Syria.]

What we can be sure of is uncertainty.  Especially for the Christians, Alawites, Yazidis and other minorities which have long resided in that tortured land.  Personally, I’m not hopeful for their safety.  I hope to be proven wrong but hope is not a strategy, not in that part of the world.

Mind you, I’ve never held to the view that the Assad dynasty was anything but nasty.  The son, less so than the father, but dictatorial just the same.  Unfortunately, the rebellion against the Assad regime was not predicated to redress human rights abuses.  The jihadists which have overrun Damascus are anything but liberals or democrats.  Nor are the purely jihadists.  They (or at least their leaders) are Israeli stooges, bought and paid for by their globalist overlords.

If you look at this map to the left, you can see what is really going on here.  There are two proposed pipelines that originate in the Persian Gulf, one goes through Syria and empties into the Mediterranean, the other goes through Syria and Turkey.  This map is the one proposed by Turkey (fancy that).  In other words, follow the money.

Bearing in mind the lessons of Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar (“Cry havoc!  And let slip the dogs of war!”), I would like to speculate as to the what the far-reaching implications are.

First of all, the safety of religious minorities will probably be dire.  Even if the worst does not come to pass, expect to see more immigration out of Syria, especially to the United States.  That’s a given.

Second, the incompetence of Arab armies continues to be reinforced in Western minds.  This will redound to the immediate benefit of Israel (and the West).

Third, despite their incompetence, terrorism against Israel, the United States and other Western countries will escalate.  I expect to see atrocities committed in Turkey as well.

Fourth, Israel will continue to receive Syrian oil from the US controlled areas of Syria.  As to whether said oil will continue to transit through Turkey I cannot say.  I’m sure plans are afoot to bypass the existing pipelines.  (Israel would be foolish to trust Erdogan.)

Fifth, Erdogan has been exposed as the Western stooge that he is.  His tenure in office has largely been characterized by double-dealing.  Lately, he’s taken to speaking out of both sides of his mouth when it comes to remaining in NATO or joining BRICS.  Personally, I expect him to be toppled by sincere Islamists in Turkey who are not funded by the West.  The Turkish populace (as well as the rest of the Muslim world) is deeply offended by the atrocities being perpetrated against the Palestinians by Israel.

Sixth, the two Russian military bases will continue to remain where they are.  They will likely be reinforced.  As Andrei Martyanov writes  “Now about hysterics…it becomes clear that Russia knew what was afoot. Fast advancement of the HTS forces and cowardly abandonment of Syrian towns and cities by SAA was not due to HTS military prowess but due to SAA ceasing to exist as a viable fighting force due to corruption, military incompetence, cowardice and treason–all classic traits of such militaries. But as I repeat ad nauseam–Russian bases in Syria ARE NOT there to “defend” Syria, let alone fight the war for Syrians… again. If Syrians do not want to fight for their country, neither does Russia, nor does Iran, as it should be. Is it bad? For Syria it certainly is, for Russia–let’s wait and see. Because Syria for Russia is not a priority.”

Seventh, the Kurds finally see an opening for statehood.  This is as it should be:  the Kurds are the largest ethnic population on the planet who do not have a national homeland.  Regardless, this will enrage the Turks but there will be little they can do about it.  For one thing, for years now, the Israelis have quietly given aid to the Kurds.  As for other countries which do not want to see an independent Kurdistan on their borders –especially Syria–there is nothing they can do about it.  As for Iran and Iraq, that is another story.

Eighth, what does this mean for the BRICS nations?  Their business model is not one of colonialism but respect for national sovereignty.  As such, they prefer trade and are very reticent about getting involved in wars of aggression.  The chaos in Syria could upend their carefully-constructed plans and interrupt oil flows from the Middle East to China.

Finally, what does this mean for the incoming Trump Administration?  Only this:  that the globalists are going to do everything in their power to present President Trump with a heaping bowl of dog-sh!t on Day One.  Trump, to his credit is keeping his options close to his chest.  Yesterday, he said it’s best to “let it play out”.  This option (though regrettable) is the only realistic one.

As for those of us who are Orthodox Christians (as I imagine most readers of this blog are), we are going to cast both eyes on Damascus and Istanbul, especially their patriarchates.  If it  becomes obvious that the Christians of Syria are being slaughtered then this will be another blot on Patriarch Bartholomew’s escutcheon, especially if he continues to be silent in the face of such persecution.  His legendary inaction, when contrasted with his love for modernism, may finally force the other primates to bring him to account with a real council.”

 

Comments

  1. Misha,

    I was the one who labeled “militant Christianity” a misnomer. As you note, we are both at different times. My contention was simply that one cannot be privileged above the other. Pacifism is AN Orthodox position. It is not THE Orthodox position (and vice versa). It’s the same with The Old Testament. There are literalist Fathers, and there are “Any passage in the Old Testament that seemingly contradicts the New is allegorical or metaphorical” (I am in the latter category). It’s the same with Hell. There are different views among the Fathers. Literalists and the “River of Fire” (after Kalomino’s book) people (There are even some quasi-universalists out there). I personally believe in Kalomino’s view. We could keep going with Toll Houses, and any number of doctrines of Our Church.

    It doesn’t make either view somehow “less Orthodox” or “liberal.” There is legitimate disagreement. Only in the hyper-partisan world of the internet does this become a problem.

    Reply

  2. London is falling (2) …

    * Keir Starmer forms EU ‘surrender squad’ to
    negotiate reversal of Boris Johnson’s Brexit *
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1988949/keir-starmer-EU-surrender-squad

    ‘ Keir Starmer has been accused of establishing a “surrender squad” of civil servants ready to hand back powers to Brussels as part of his EU renegotiation.

    A team of over 100 civil servants has been brought together to head the renegotiation, which critics have warned will see the Prime Minister unpick Brexit and tie Britain closer to the EU.

    The new team will be housed within the all-powerful Cabinet Office, and headed by a £200,000-a-year mandarin reporting to Europe minister Nick Thomas-Symonds.

    A source told the Mail on Sunday: “The officials are being drawn from every government department, and they have been told that they will have full powers to demand whatever they need from any corner of Whitehall to make the reset work.”

    While Sir Keir insists he has abandoned his desires to scrap Brexit and reverse the 2016 referendum result, many believe he wants to quietly take the country back and surrender key freedoms.

    Former Brexit negotiator Lord Frost said the PM’s desire to rejoin the EU “has been blown by the fact they can’t hide the creation of this Surrender Squad in the Cabinet Office.”

    He added: “This huge unit is getting ready for a major renegotiation – it will have more people than I had for the original deal with the EU in 2020.

    “Everyone in this Government really wants to rejoin the EU one day. Only public opinion is stopping them. So they are trying to act in secrecy and conceal their plans to align with EU rules, to bring back EU law and to give away our fishing grounds, by calling all this just a “reset”.

    “Unless we can stop them, the reset will end with this country once again in the EU’s orbit, gradually losing our ability to set our own rules and make our own laws. It’s time for those who support our national independence and democracy to wake up.”

    Kemi Badenoch, the Tory leader, also blasted Sir Keir for “taking us backwards”. ‘

    Reply

  4. The only thing I would disagree with in the following analysis
    is Paul Craig Roberts’ claim that Putin betrayed Syria.
    He didn’t. The Syrians refused to fight.
    They betrayed themselves.

    * Seven Countries in Five Years | Paul Craig Roberts *
    https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2024/12/15/seven-countries-in-five-years/

    ‘ The media brothel has presented the HTS terrorist/democratic opposition as Syria’s rescuer promising peace and friendship. But videos emerging reveal a campaign of violence, hangings and machine-gunning of people. It is Muslims killing Muslims, Arabs killing Arabs. The reason Arabs are powerless is that they had rather kill each other than fight against their common enemies. The borders of Arab countries were created by European colonists like the countries in Africa that combined hostile tribes into a country. So Middle Eastern countries contain Shia and Sunni populations. The two sects have been at sword’s point for centuries, enabling the West to use one against the other. Here are a few of the videos of the democratic opposition’s brutal violence. The truth is in the videos, not in the media staged scenes of Syrians celebrating the downfall of Assad:

    https://www.rt.com/news/609310-blinded-by-propaganda-syria/

    https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2024/12/12/he-syrian-democratic-opposition-at-work/

    Iran is largely Persian, not Arab and more unified. But there are progressive, pro-Western elements, and among the young there is desire for lessening of religious restraints. There are always those who prefer sin to righteousness. The US works on the progressive elements and now Iran has a reform government. Isolated as Iran now is, thanks to Putin’s betrayal of Syria, there will likely be increased pressure for accommodation to the West. However, Iran might not be given a chance. Trump’s Zionist appointees are pressing him to attack Iran, claiming that Iran’s nuclear facilities can be changed from peaceful uses to military uses, thus enabling Iran to defend itself. Trump’s Zionists expect Putin to desert Iran just as he did Syria.

    If Iran is overthrown, the CIA will begin sending jihadists into the Muslim areas of the Russian Federation, and the same forces of disorder used against Middle Eastern countries will be used in the effort to break up the Russian Federation. It is a puzzle what Putin was thinking when he agreed to Syria’s destruction.

    The Arabs have always been their own worst enemy, and now they have managed to destroy the Arab world with only Saudi Arabia remaining. Recently, the Israeli Zionist government added a large part of Saudi Arabia to the map of Greater Israel.

    The Zionist neoconservatives agenda of 7 countries in 5 years took longer but has been essentially accomplished. ‘

    Reply

    • Excellent analysis. My only quibble is that Russia is almost certainly not going to abandon Iran. The Syrians (and the broader Arab world in general) deserve what’s coming to them.

      Other contingencies would include the long-term viability of Israel as a nation-state. Also, how long will the US keep on propping them up (to the tune of $4 billion/year)? All good things eventually come to an end.

      Reply

    • I don’t think Putin abandoned Syria. Assad is in Moscow, after all. And it looks like they will retain their bases. But you must keep in mind that there is a shooting war on between East and West. Maneuvering is a necessity. Putin simply sidestepped getting bogged down in a second front against ISIS in Aleppo in favor of allowing Turkish backed forces to overrun the country and this confounded US/Israeli designs.

      It is true that the Iranians lost the Homs corridor to supply Hezbollah. But that was not the Western plan, just a side effect. And they will find a different means to help Hezbollah. The Iranian influence in Syria has been greatly reduced; however, Syria is predominantly Sunni in any case and so the Assad situation was inherently unstable. Now Sunnis rule there, under Turkish “guidance”.

      From the perspective of cosmopolitan Syrians, it’s the end of the world. And HTS are no angels at all. But they are a front for the Turkish special forces and will probably not be allowed much more leeway to impose their beliefs than is the standard in Turkey, at least in the long run.

      Israel understands they were betrayed. Trump also, I believe based on his comments about Turkey executing an unfriendly takeover of Syria, has some grasp of what really happened. But the West will never admit it and even the alternative media won’t pick up on it fully until they have had a long time to reflect on it.

      Reply

  5. I had started to post this the other day, but it never made it through. It was in answer to someone who asked what I meant by “militant Christianity”, or did not like the term. But I can’t find that comment either due to the current status of the site. It is still relevant given the circumstances in Syria and the peril that Christians face worldwide.

    * * *

    “Militant Christianity” is simply my response to the modern, castrated variety. We know our ancestors in the faith were not the smarmy, saccharine, “your best life”, Jimmy Stewart types. When the time was right, they were martyred. When the time was right, they fought. A time to love, a time to hate. A time for peace, a time for war. A time to kill, a time to heal.

    The Orthodox were never pacifists, but often warriors. But pacifism was never ever a mandatory, general rule. If fact, Marcionism was condemned as a heresy in the second century. Recall that St. Sergei of Radonezh sent two of his monks to fight as warriors with St. Dimitri Donskoy.

    It is the death of the patriarchy and of militant Christianity after the world wars that has left us in the pitiful shape we are in now. Chivalry is really just the outward expression of inward spiritual warfare. Both are ascetic in a way.

    “You’re just as bad as the Muslims”, some would say.

    “Oh no. Much worse.” I would reply.

    At times and places, the Old Testament is much harsher than Islamic jihad. And God does not command sin. He is full spectrum: incredible love to fearful wrath. The spirit of modern(ist) Christianity is all wrong. We have lost our masculine, medieval “edge”. And we are proud of the fact and fear any resurgence of any such spirit.

    That will not cut it against the liberals, and it certainly won’t cut it against the Muslims.

    Reply

    • Misha, quite profound. Personally, I see no reason why we need to continue the soyification of the West. It turns out the men (true men) were right all along: Trump(ism) is the wave of the future. There is no need to clarify things with liberal qualifiers any more. Feminism is a lie. Sodomy leads to pederasty. There is no such things as “gender dysphoria”. (Actually, there is, it’s called “puberty”.)

      If I may pat myself on the back, both Gail and and I went way out on a limb in our support for Trump (and Putin, Orban, and other manly nationalist leaders), not knowing if Trump would win. It didn’t matter, better to lose with Trump than live on our knees.

      Perhaps our motto should be “Oh no, much worse”? Love it!

      Reply

  6. The thing that is confusing so very many people is the role of Turkey in this insanity. If I had to guess, I would suggest Erdogan’s strategy is the following:

    The West, Israel, CIA, et al. were betting that if they challenged the Assad government (which was the original plan, rather than overthrowing it) that this would draw the Russians into a quagmire and cause harm to their resolve in the Ukraine. They were focused on trying to save NATO and to do that they had to orchestrate something in the Ukraine that they could at least call a “draw” or “ceasefire”, thereby justifying the continued existence of NATO as a deterrent and even its re-arming.

    So if that had been successful, Erdogan would be in the position of having helped out the West in Syria, preserving NATO and, regardless of other considerations, would have a strong influence in Syria and a platform against the Kurds. In short, he could be a hero to the West if the West succeeded.

    But, Erdogan also thought, if the West fails to draw Russia into the Syrian quagmire and it does not detract from the Ukrainian war effort, then Ukraine will surely fall and NATO will be no more. In that case, NATO membership is useless and his pivot toward BRiCS and the SCO was prescient. It would not make him a hero, of course, with the Russians and Iran. But it would still leave him with dramatically greater influence in Syria and a platform against the Kurds.

    But what if Erdogan, as is quite likely, simply conspired with the Russians and Iranians as a double agent, knowing all the while that Russia would not allow itself to get bogged down in Syria under any circumstances? He was in the perfect position to know this since he has relatively good relations with both Russia and Iran, especially through the Astana process. In fact, how could Erdogan not know that Russia would not get bogged down in Syria.

    In that case, Erdogan simply used the US and Israel to fund his ostensible takeover of Syria and furtherance of his Ottoman Redux.

    Reply

  7. This is a trap that was laid for Russia and Iran and is being turned around to catch the US and Israel.

    No doubt CIA/Mossad were involved in funding and “inspiring” the downfall of Assad. They had been at it for many years. But a funny thing happened on the way to the latest color revolution. Assad, Russia and Iran refused to take the bait and get drawn into a quagmire. They each have enough on their respective plates and were not inclined to do so in any case. Russia is near victory in the Ukraine and Iran just demonstrated it can “reach out and touch” Israel while they cannot do the same to Iran.

    The thing to focus on is Turkey’s role. Bear in mind that there is a world war going on between East and West, between the Eurasian/BRICS Alliance and the Atlanticists. Turkey is in NATO, but is a problem chiild, to say the least. Yet both Turkey and Syria have applied for membership in BRICS. This is often overlooked in analyzing this situation. When Syria was under Assad and aligned with Iran, this made sense from his perspective. But for Turkey, it has already been offered “partner” status but has chosen to hold out for full member status. And in the meantime, it is doing Syria.

    Now Erdogan has eyes and can see what’s happening in the Ukraine. And he understands what it means for NATO. He also knows that he will never be admitted to the EU. Until now, he has played both sides, which is smart given his position. But the West is waning and the East is rising. And he wants a seat at the BRICS table and the SCO as the new Ottoman sultan.

    The other thing that people are overlooking is the nature of these terrorist groups who do work for the CIA/Mossad. And this is a particularly salient point in West Asia. Both the rank and file and the leadership both hate Israel and the US with a white hot passion. However, they are businessmen with families and followers to feed. And the region is known for nothing if not for perfidy and treachery. So they will take Western money to do the deeds that the West wants. And while receiving that money they may restrain themselves from doing things against western interests. However, this is not their natural state of equilibrium. And they will always seek to revert to type. So if a deal can be made with interests whose politics are closer to their own, they will make it if it is sufficiently lucrative.

    So, for example, the US supported both the Taliban and al Qaeda against Soviet/Russian interests in Afghanistan. But this was merely opportunism on the part of these groups and the CIA. It was not an ideological affiliation. And so things “went sideways”, so to speak. We ended up fighting both groups after 9/11.

    The CIA does not understand this. But Russia and Iran do. The CIA are liberals who see religion as passe and a fig leaf. Their ideological motivation is liberalism and the believe their clients motivation is mostly money under a thin veneer of Islam. They believe this because they can be bought off so easily. However, they do not see the long term picture whereas these other parties do. They can build up strength and change sides. And they can, and will, make deals with their ideological counterparts eventually. That is simply the way of mankind. Whatever Jolani (head of HTS) believes, his followers hate Israel and the US because they are Zionists and Crusaders and the enemies of Islam. And he can only carry on with so much hypocrisy while retaining power.

    So, I expect the new government to make deals with Iran, like the government of Iraq did. And there is no doubt that they will make deals with the Russians because they already signaled they are offered to accept the Russian bases in Syria (which I would advise the Russians to decline, at least for now).

    This thing is just beginning. Both Russia and Iran are free and clear, other than a few Russian bases no one wants to touch and which may be removed by Russia. However, you have two sets of mortal enemies in Syria arrayed against each other. Turks in the northwest vs. Kurds in the northeast and Islamist militants in the north and the IDF in the south. America is smack dab in the middle of it with 28 bases in the northeast.

    What could go wrong?

    Trump should get us out of there asap.

    Reply

  8. “General Mike Flynn,* the former head of the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), warned his colleagues in the Obama administration, that supporting terrorist groups to prosecute proxy wars on Washington’s behalf, was a risky business that would eventually backfire leading to the establishment of ‘a Salafist principality in Syria.’ That warning has now become a reality.” (From “Black Flag over Damascus” https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/black-flag-over-damascus/)

    *Gail and I went to see Gen Flynn several months ago when he spoke in Tulsa.

    Reply

  9. Success has many fathers but defeat is an orphan. Basically, I agree with David. This was primarily Turkey. Russia did not want another Afghanistan and preferred to let someone else be bled dry.

    I expect Iran will find a way to infiltrate or bribe the new government and continue to arm Hezbollah.

    My guess is that either Erdogan will keep Syria in line with BRICS policy, or either his forces or whomever ends up in Syria will be hit hard by Russia and Iran. I think if Erdogan can handle it, they were ok with it, if not, they’d prefer to make it a hypersonic missile killing field than turn it over to the West.

    That’s one reason Israel is gobbling up territory asap. They know that HTS is no friend of theirs.

    Reply

  10. Even when he expresses sympathies, he still can’t resist twisting the knife:

    “In a phone conversation, the Ecumenical Patriarch assured Patriarch John X of the unwavering support of the Mother Church of Constantinople, emphasizing the enduring unity and fraternal bonds between the two Patriarchates during these trying times. Patriarch Bartholomew offered prayers to Almighty God, asking for peace to prevail in the hearts of all and for stability and reconciliation to be restored in Syria.”

    Did you catch it? “Mother Church of Constantinople“? In case anybody was wondering, Antioch predates Constantinople by at least three centuries. (It was founded by St Peter, even before he founded the Church of Rome.)

    Reply

  11. St. Paisios said the beginning of Turkeys downfall would be when the Hagia Sophia was made a mosque. Met. Neophyte of Morphou said a holy elder told him back in the 90s that when Israel attacks Irans nuclear site, the countdown to the end begins. Next big thing would be the fall of Aleppo in Syria. Coming soon Erdogan will give up or be driven from power and a new government more hostile to Russia would come to power. Two trigggers told us by St Paisios, the Hexamilla/six mile push into Greek territorial waters, and the closing of the Bosporus to Russian shipping especially military. Russia tears Turkey apart and the Kurds and Armenians each get a chunk for a homeland and the western part of Constantinople is returned to Greece, and Hagia Sophia restored as a cathedral, and the Muslim minerets become the hermitages of new stylites. This is what seems to be unfolding in the headlines.

    Reply

    • Fascinating and true.

      Indeed, events are happening so quickly now it is impossible to keep up. All the more reason to focus on the church. We’re seeing so many young men wandering, in a daze, from the battlefields of the culture wars into the Divine Liturgy. And no doubt we live in times that seem like World War III is upon us.

      I pray for my children! I can’t imagine what life here in America will look like in ten, fifteen years.

      Reply

  12. It would come as no surprise if Biden and Company crippled Trump’s MAGA efforts to drain the swamp with a nice little war, topped off with a Covid 2.0 cherry on top.

    Reply

  15. This is Larry Johnson’s assessment (former CIA analyst):

    Syria, Mission Accomplished?
    8 December 2024 by Larry C. Johnson 147 Comments

    “Remember all of the jubilation created in Baghdad by the CIA, who hired a crowd that stormed the center square and tore down the statue of Saddam Hussein? Remember the mobs looting the presidential palaces, banks and commercial outlets? Welcome to Damascus 2024. To quote Yogi Berra, “It is Déjà vu, all over again.”

    “I admit, I am surprised by how rapidly the Assad regime collapsed. This was not the result, primarily, of military pressure from the terrorist fighters of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Something else was afoot. A deal was cut and Assad was persuaded to abandon his government and head for Russia.

    “I am sure there are champagne corks a popping at CIA Headquarters in McLean, Virginia and at MI-6 Headquarters in London. I think this operation surpassed even their expectations. But, if the subsequent events that unfolded in Iraq in 2003 and in Libya in 2011 are any guide, the celebrations should be tempered with trepidation. Why? Because Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham is now in charge. Instead of bringing peace and reconciliation, HTS will impose strict Sharia law and will punish those guilty of heresy — which means large segments of Syrian society are likely to be purged. HTS itself will become a target of terrorism. The most likely fate for Syria — at least for the next decade — is chaos and mayhem.”

    https://sonar21.com/syria-mission-accomplished/

    Reply

    • Thing about that joker is he was writing stuff like this a mere 48 hours or so earlier:

      “So, take the social media posts with a grain of salt. Russia and Iran are showing no signs of surrendering and walking away from Syria.”

      Which to anyone following closely was clearly not the case. Larry is a propagandist not an analyst. How did he blow it so badly? A few theoretical possibilities:

      1. He doesn’t really have any meaningful sources or personal expertise, so his opinion and claims weren’t based on any actual knowledge, just giving the ideologically correct pro-Russian line. That’s not analysis!

      2. He does have sources, but they were either in the dark, or feeding him disinformation, and he doesn’t have a diverse enough pool to be able to either filter misinformation out, or realize that he doesn’t have a clear enough picture to make clear assessments. At this point you aren’t an analyst, just a useful idiot.

      3. He has sources, and he either knew they were giving misinformation but reported it anyway because it’s what his audience wants to hear, or was an active participant in a misinformation campaign. In either case if you reach the point of actively lying to your audience, you’re not an analyst.

      As I’ve mentioned before, I find Larry useful to look at sometimes, but mostly to observe things he is very studiously avoiding talking about or brushing aside as irrelevant. His meal ticket is a specific ideological niche and he isn’t going to color outside the lines, but won’t be punished by his audience for being repeatedly wrong, as long as he says the right things. Which makes him of very limited utility. But a good choice of first name, so I can call Larry, Douglas and Scott the Three Stooges.

      Reply

      • Russia and Iran were happy to stand by Syria up until it became clear that Assad did not want to fight but rather retreat and leave. With a motivated Syrian army, HTS could not have prevailed. Russia was bombing the invaders all the way up into Idlib.

        Assad gave in. In broad terms, Johnson was right. One cannot predict when someone will suddenly decide to turn tail. HTS certainly was not predicting what happened. They thought they were simply taking Aleppo.

        Reply

    • This is going to sound callous, but whatever government emerges in Syria, there is a very high degree of probability that it will not be liberal or woke in any form or fashion. And so I pray for the Syrian Christians and everyone else there, but if the war is West against the Rest, Syria will remain part of “the Rest”. In a world war between Western Liberalism vs. Traditional Cultures/Faiths, you’re going to have some victories that do not seem like victories depending on the demographic composition of the population. Sunnis are ruling Sunnis in Syria now.

      Now we await the war between the Turks and the US backed Kurds in the north of the country and, if the Israeils aren’t careful, a war between them and HTC in southern Syria. On top of that you have the danger that one revolution can inspire others in the region in Lebanon, Egypt, et al.

      Though we have serious humanitarian concerns and very little we can do about it, I am relieved that it’s not an Orange or Rose revolution.

      These are not people that the West can control.

      The West accomplished a temporary interruption of Hezbollah’s stream of support from Iran. This hurts Hezbollah but not really Iran, other than its prestige. However, when they find another route, that will be alleviated.

      But in order to do this, it had to create a quagmire for everyone foolish enough to remain in Syria. This includes Turkey, the US and Israel.

      As the saying goes, “This is worse than a crime, it is a mistake.”

      And when your enemy is making a mistake, don’t interrupt him.

      Reply

  16. This collapse was orchestrated in advance, like a controlled demolition.

    I disagree that Turkey is a “Western Stooge.” This was a big power play by Erdogan, and I believe Ankara is firmly in the driver’s seat on this one.

    Trump’s re-election and Russia’s war in Ukraine provided Turkey with the golden opportunity to seize a big seat at the table of Middle Eastern politics. I see this move as another Cyprus moment, where Turkey took advantage of its geopolitical position (and the situation) to do what it wanted.

    Given how “smoothly” it all went down, Washington and Moscow knew what was going down. Moscow’s stepping aside and “convincing” Assad to leave was likely part of the deal to secure their bases (ala Guantanamo). America gets to keep the oil fields, and put Assad’s picture in our Regime Change Photo Album. Turkey takes its place at the table of Middle Eastern politics in a way not seen since the Ottoman era. Hezbollah loses and Iran loses, making Israel happy (and the Arab States).

    The X Factor is the Kurds. Like you, I hope that the right thing comes out of it. I doubt the Kurds will accept a Hamas style government or a Turkish stooge in Damascus. The combination of Syrian and Iraqi Kurdistans into a unified Kurdish state would be justice, but I doubt Turkey and Iraq would allow that to happen. In the middle of course are Christians and other minorities. The Antiochian Patriarchate itself is in danger.

    Lord, have mercy.

    Reply

    • Looking back, I too, am astonished at how quickly it all went down. I disagree however with your assessment of Erdogan. Unless there’s a “great game” afoot between him, Putin and the incoming Trump administration, I could easily make the case that Erdogan betrayed Putin.

      Personally, I hope your assessment is the correct one.

      One of the pluses in your argument is that the Assad family is safe and sound in Moscow. A minus would be that Israel gobbled up more land in Syria for its security buffer zone.

      The biggest minus is Jolani, the new dictator of Syria. From the map of Syria that I’ve seen, carved up as different zones of occupation, I can easily see it spinning out of control, an extended civil war type situation.

      Like I said, I hope I’m wrong. One way we’ll know if the Russian bases remain and are left unmolested.

      Reply

    • I am certain Israel had a large hand in this. Cutting off the Iran-to-Lebanon supply lines is critical to their efforts of neutering their neighbors.

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    • If any Monomakhos reader does receive news on the Antiochian Patriarchate in Damascus, please post here. Their website is challenging and not updated frequently. We would all kindly appreciate it for our prayers.

      Reply

      • Their facebook page is more regularly updated.

        https://www.facebook.com/Antiochpatriarchate.org/

        Some well-wishes from other patriarchates, but little else. Judging from the comments on the posts, the faithful are desperate for leadership from the Church. It’s a terribly hard situation—the Church by necessity had maintained good relations with Assad, and that can’t be a good look to the new rulers.

        God have mercy.

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